📍 PIN 📌 THAT 🧷 TREND 🎯
A chat with Pinterest's global trends and insights lead on predicting trends(and the trend of trend reports).
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As we talked about over the weekend, this year’s many “wrapped” projects have lost the plot. Be it because of AI, be it because of navel-gazing, something about this big Internet occasion fell flat this year. Perhaps it was all the politics or perhaps it was our desire to log off: who knows! But we will continue to study and digest what went wrong, that such an unproblematic fave stepped out of line so egregiously.
It also got me thinking about an example of end-of-year occasion done right: Pinterest Predicts, a yearly rewind by the mood board social network that looks outward instead of inward, using their data to tell you what’s “next” as far as trends. It’s the rare example of a brand, um, sharing stats and flexing expertise versus cranking an airhorn across the whole of the internet to get you to stop and look at yourself yet again. Also? Pinterest Predicts is actually useful, the sort of report that people talk about and share over Slack and group chats as they strategize the year ahead. It also takes the form of something else you know I love: a trend report — and one of the more revered iterations of the form, right up there alongside The Lyst Index and Google Year In Search.
It’s so good because it knows what it is and it knows who it’s for. While Spotify and its myriad copycats do backflips for attention, Pinterest is moisturized, unbothered, in their lane, focused and flourishing. That’s why — to my surprise — a few weeks ago I got a message from the Pinterest team about their 2025 report, wondering if I’d be interested in chatting about it. And? Duh: I was so down! It’s not that I’ve been a longtime fan of the project but it’s also that the report clarifies or furthers items we’ve been tracking here: their Surreal Soirees and Primary Play trends get at ongoing adults-as-kids stories; Nesting Parties help scratch that not-online, building community itch; Mix & Maximalist ladders into the playfulness of pastiche culture while alluding to the constant collisions of gestures (with a lil bit of stain swag and too-muchness); and things like Terra Futura ladder (amongst other things) into our trying to push beyond consumption, beyond the poisoning of capitalism. That’s why I love the report: it’s a statement of culture intending to validate taste and reorient directions, less in the concretized “You did XYZ.” way and more in the “This is what’s happening. Do you see what we see?” way.
So, I hopped on a video call with Sydney Stanback, the brand’s Global Trends & Insights Lead to chat about 2025 and so much more. She and I covered quite a bit in thirty minutes, speedrunning subjects like what goes into making a report like this, what adults (Ahem: Millennials.) acting like kids says about modern adulthood, what trends we can expect to see for the rest of the decade, and why there are so many trend reports in the world right now. Come for the near future trend insights — stay for advice on how to better communicate your message (especially in the trend space).
KRF: I feel like the Pinterest Trend Report is something so many people talk about “in the industry”! Having worked with big tech brands and having worked helping to create efforts like this, it feels like the Spotify Wrapped for “what brands should do next” — and I think it lives up to that bar of driving a cultural conversation. I'm curious what goes into these reports and how you approach them. What’s the relationship between data and colloquial input? What’s the relationship between trend analysis and, like, people talking? Because I know that part of doing this work is valuing what you and your friends talk about just as much as the data. That lived experience is a huge input.
SS: I really do think that the trend spotting process for critics is very much an art and a science, and we work on refining both the artistic elements of it and the scientific elements of it every single year. I joke that this project is a 365 day endeavor for my team, but it really takes months to pull together. We really start working on it heavily in the summer — but one of the things that really powers it is our audience. We have over half a billion action-oriented people that come to Pinterest from around the world to plan their next big thing. That really provides us with the perfect source of data for trend forecasting. When it comes to the scientific element of it, that’s really where the audience behavior comes to life. We have a rigorous machine learning methodology that allows us to identify and forecast how these trends are likely to grow on Pinterest and this methodology occurs in three core steps.
First, we analyze billions of Pinterest searches. In order to sift through billions of searches, we have to set volume and growth thresholds to make sure that we're looking at the right pot of searches. For the first time this year, we applied visual search technology to spot emerging visual patterns on the platform, which is a very new layer that has yielded some pretty captivating results.
Then our second step is with a boost from machine learning. We have a team of internal strategists — and this is kind of where that art starts peeking in — because it's not just about the data source: it's about people's perspective on the data. We have a very diverse mix of people that come into a room, where we actually have a three day brainstorming session where we’re in the data every single day. It's my favorite week of the year, but it's also the most exhausting week. I like to view [the data] as a massive focus group, which our machine learning methodology allows us to generate trend clusters. These clusters are made up of searches that relate to each other, which we sift through, taking from 1000s of clusters to form a list of 20 distinct trends. That takes time and a lot of different levels of review. Another thing I really appreciate about this process is that we don't just vet it internally: we partner with an external vendor to ensure that these trends are globally representative but also inclusive. Our goal is that anyone who picks up this report can find something that they can relate to. That's a very critical step.
Our final step in this process, we track for growth potential. We use a mix of predictive analytics and platform engagement signals to ensure that these trends really have staying power. Again: we have a really great source of data — but we do apply a bit of art to the science to ensure that whatever we're predicting for the year ahead is actually going to come true. We never want to get anything wrong.
KRF: Well, I think this raises another question I was thinking about: how much is this data informed by, say, previous years? Is there an acknowledgment that, even if something isn’t a top search this year, it’s had steady growth and demand — is that an input as well?
SS: That evolutionary perspective comes in a few different ways. The first being: I have the privilege to have worked on this report for five years, so I have this perspective on how behaviors have evolved essentially since 2020. Whenever we're looking at data now, we have the gift of that historical perspective — and we have new perspectives in the room, which are very critical for the success of this program as well…The other thing that we consider when we're identifying trends is that we actually look at how searches are growing over a two year period. A lot of trend reports reflect the biggest trends that happened in the previous year: we want to look at how data is evolving over a series of two years because we want to ensure it's not a blip in the radar. We really want to make sure these are actual shifts in consumer behaviors, that the search is growing year over year — and are still forecasted to continue to grow into the year ahead. It's a bit of a multi-layered perspective but, again, I feel lucky that, as I've been at Pinterest, I've worked on this report. I've seen these behaviors evolve.
KRF: Oh, it's important to have that institutional knowledge because it helps get things going — otherwise you're starting from the ground up every time which is not sustainable at all. The success of the report and methodology go hand in hand with the process itself and, having worked on some year in review items, you have to deal with pivots like — Say. — this past November that I am not jealous of, that you can and cannot predict. That requires so much flexibility!
One thing in the report that jumped out to me was the theme of escapism because, when we zoom out, it feels like this is a definite 2020s decade trend. Obviously — with COVID, with things that were happening in the early 2020s — it was a thing and this report helps show how this gesture isn't going anywhere. It might not just be cores and aesthetics but is evolving in myriad ways. Why do we think that this is? I think there are obvious reasons — again, the COVID thing — but why do we think this is happening? How do we think it's going to evolve? To me — and feel free to disagree — it’s a mix going in different directions, and the “I wear this.” aspect of it…that part of the cycle has gone to bed. Something else is emerging that we're experiencing and is still yet to come. This report gets at that. What are your thoughts? What will escapism be and how will it evolve?
SS: That's a fantastic question. I remember our first year of doing this report, in 2020, it was in the height of the pandemic, and I remember we were trying to figure out how much the pandemic will play a role in forecasting. At the time, we didn't know what the implications were going to be. But the reality is that the events of the past five years — specifically the path of the pandemic — fundamentally changed how people behave. We have to kind of consider it. It impacts every generation in a different way. I think it definitely had a very significant impact on Gen Z in terms of the life moments that they had to unfortunately miss. They experienced things in a very different way than older generations did, in very pivotal moments of their lives.
It’s usually the younger generations that are kind of defining what the trends are so we are particularly paying close attention to Gen Z. They're our fastest growing audience on Pinterest, and actually about 65% of the trends and this year's report are driven by Gen Z. We're really getting their footprint on this year's report. Pinterest really offers a unique space for creative exploration and self expression. It empowers people to really curate a life that brings them joy. We did another third party research study earlier this year that will come out with Pinterest Predicts is the modern trend curve: the lifecycle of a trend has dramatically accelerated over the past few years — and we wanted to get an understanding of the role Pinterest plays in this new trend ecosystem. What we discovered is that people really view Pinterest as a valuable companion on the journey of self discovery because it really helps them create a roadmap to living their most authentic lives. When you're thinking specifically about younger people and Gen Z, this is a really valuable space for them to be as bold and authentic as they want to be. It's kind of like a form of escapism, right? They can have this very introverted or personal connection with the platform and they can be introspective and explore all aspects of their persona: that escapism has been a way to cope with the events of the past few years — but I don't think it's just existing on Pinterest. Escapism might become more of a reality. Like, I think we probably all hid that aspect of ourselves because that's just how our generations operated. But we're seeing that people, specifically Gen Z, are taking these aesthetics that they're experiencing online and really bringing them to life in their own lives because that's just who they are.
The concept of escapism is such a fascinating one in a world where a lot of this escapism is happening online. It's not just a mental exercise anymore but very much like a digital exercise — and we're seeing a lot of that happen on Pinterest.
KRF: Other platforms have contributed to this too but, in a lot of ways, these building blocks of creating fantasy online and creating a dream world and escapism all started on a place like Pinterest, where you build a pin board, a mood board, to plan your dream wedding all the way to your Castlecore aesthetic. I think Pinterest has helped to train people to do this, which can be a good thing: “I want to plan X thing. So, I'm going to make a Pinterest board for it.” This “magical thinking” is embedded in the platform which makes it not-surprising that it's reflecting the idea back because people go to project their dreams and how they want to escape there, whether it's a vacation or becoming a fairy. Both are valid, for different reasons.
Related to escapism — and something I've been tracking for a few years, because it makes me a bit crazy but I get it — is the adult-as-kid trend. I didn't invent this but the “kidification of adulthood” and “kiddified adults” go beyond Gen Z and into a clearly Millennial space. What do you think — at least from the data — that this says about adulthood now? Millennials have been adults for some time and a lot of us are into or entering our 40s and yet there’s still this kidified behavior. Plus? Lots of us have kids now. What does this behavior say about adulthood? How do we think this year changed this phenomena?
SS: I always joke that we're the adults now.
KRF: Seriously.
SS: We're definitely seeing that throughout Predicts. Even thinking about Castlecore: there could be an argument that there is a childlike element of that. We have a home trend called Primary Play, which is all about adding your own personalized elements to furniture, wall decor, so on, so forth. I remember when we identified that trend, the position that we took on it was: everything's a canvas. There's this desire towards hyper-personalization, which can be childlike or cannot be: it goes both ways. I can see certain generations tapping into it to personalize a child's space but I can also see certain generations tapping into it, believing it's not enough for me to just “own” something unique — I need to actually apply my own personal taste, like my own persona to it. in my own unique way.
If anything, our generations — or I'll speak on behalf of millennials, or millennial specific trends over the past few years — is having an honest conversation about adulthood in a way that wasn't accessible to other generations. One of my favorite trends from a few years ago was called The Fourth Trimester, and it was all about speaking honestly about what happens during a postpartum period. That is a conversation that was never very mainstream, not at that time, and I think our generation was like, “No, we really need to have a conversation about what this entails. This is a part of adulthood. We need to be honest about it.” We're seeing that surface again in another parenting trend called Nesting Parties. The essence of that trend is empowering parents through community. The baby shower has gone so commercialized: it's just gotten really cumbersome to parents. Months ago, I was at a baby shower and I was like, “This is like a wedding…You're preparing for a child! This is huge.” Nesting parties take the stress away from the parents and empower them through community for the next era of their lives. We've been having a lot of conversations about baby showers over the past few years, so this is a response to that: let's take it back to empowering parents to enter this new era of their lives. Because we've been able to have a lot of honest conversations about certain aspects of adulthood, people are addressing it in different ways, specifically Millennials and Gen Z. There's a level of honesty that comes with that, that might seem childlike or like a little bit naive. Again: I can't believe we're the adults now — but at least it's honest. It’s our take on how to enter adulthood in a way that is genuine to our generation.
KRF: Yeah, and I think a lot of this — and in ways, when you were saying this sort of Primary Play thing and the customization item —has existed, with creators on YouTube and TikTok who have been playing in this space. To me what this is getting at, and what the escapism also gets at, is trying to reclaim yourself in a factory, in the machine of capitalism, where everything is the same. You need to stand out. You're working too much and you're trying to find joy — and that’s really what a lot of these trends about adults-acting-like-kids get at. It’s an outlet too, like, “I'm not able to be XYZ thing, but I can become a fairy once work is over because that makes me feel like I have achieved a dream.” It ties into reclaiming your space in a world that increasingly feels like you don't matter — which is tough. We're all bouncing against that. That's a 2020s or 21st century theme.
To get a bit meta, I think Pinterest Predicts is such a big thing that so many people love because it's always fun and ends up informing strategies and ways of looking at the world much like the Lyst reports. Things like Spotify Wrapped have become ways to consume reflection (or reflect consumption) which is good and bad but what you all do is different in that it looks forward and not back. Writing weekly Reports™ on these things and often stumbling upon reports of reports of reports, I'm always curious what people's thoughts are on, say, the state of trend reports. My quick take is that, because there's so much noise and so many things to push through, we need curators and expert voices to speak up and say “This is what's happening. This is what you should look out for.” because there's too much going on. What do you think about the trend of trend reports? How do we see them evolving? Why are they important?
SS: It’s definitely cluttered and becoming increasingly cluttered over the past few years. When we went through a rebranding a few years ago, from P100 to Pinterest Predicts, that was a very pivotal moment for this program — and I would also argue for Pinterest — because we had to basically redefine the purpose and the impact of our trend reporting. It was really the P100 report in 2019, when we did a retrospective of that report, we discovered — wait…a lot of the things that we were saying in this report actually came true. That’s incredible! And it allowed us to pivot from P100 to Pinterest Predicts which I think set and redefined the trend reporting landscape for half a decade. When we think about this report every single year — and what helps us stand out from the herd of other reports — is that I think our report is really authentic to our platform. Like we would never put a trend in there that we didn't feel that our audience wasn't actually engaging in. These trend reports are very critical: they provide different perspectives of what's happening in the landscape. But, in order for a trend report to truly resonate in the way that it needs to, it really has to have a user-first approach and it has to have its audience in mind. I don't think these are going to go anywhere: people have this comfort in terms of reflecting on the past but also looking ahead to the future. The only way that these trend reports are going to work is if they keep their audiences in mind. I always say that identifying the trends for this report actually isn't that challenging: it's narrowing it down. What goes into that process is knowing our audience and what they care about and how they use Pinterest in their own personal journey. That looks different for different types of audiences across different types of regions — and we have to keep that in mind when we're narrowing this list down.
KRF: It's a good reminder for anybody who works in this space or is thinking in this way: it's easy to let that horse run away from you. Knowing who you’re talking to and how it can or should help is what differentiates you. Another thing that differentiates your “predictions” is that, you know, you actually have the data to back up what you’re saying. Little me, like…I always make sure to qualify what is said — and to emphasize that I am not a trend predictor. I do not predict the future! My job is to analyze the story of life and culture and tell you which storylines to pay attention to. If you want to place a million dollar bet on something that is said — go ahead. But that is not the point.
SS: That work is so critical though. Our process is an art and design and we have a really amazing data source for the scientific element of it — and I love that part of it, as a researcher. I love digging deep: it's my favorite part. But it's the cultural conversations that help that data land. We can't just say, “Castles are trending.” Why do we think this is happening? What are the conversations being had? How is this actually coming forward in culture? Chappell Roan had this aesthetic in her VMAs performance! We caught that trend before she even performed. Balancing both sides of the conversation is so critical to the success of these trend reports.
KRF: That’s useful to hear! So, lastly, I’m curious about what you all are seeing for the more distant future, for the upcoming year and beyond. What conversations are you monitoring for the latter half of the 2020s? And generally for the 2020s at large? Are there other things you’re thinking about? I mean, it could be “dogs” for all I know — but I have no idea.
SS: I hope it's dogs, as a dog owner! I think one of the themes we've seen surface and over the past few years through our reports is that people have become increasingly more daring and expressive. People are coming to us to figure out how to do that and, again, having that historical perspective of seeing how these trends have actually evolved over the past five years is useful. [The 2025] report is definitely the most maximalist — and I would call it unapologetic, out of all of our reports. That wasn't something necessarily that was intentional: that was something we were observing in the data. I kind of see, in response to a very pivotal early 2020, pandemic moment, people are unleashing themselves out into real spaces and becoming way more expressive with themselves, craving authenticity in the spaces that they're in. That's what I'm looking forward to. That's something that I'm personally excited about — but that's also something we're seeing in the data.
Explore the full Pinterest Predicts 2025 report here and go further into their process here.
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