is Hollywood really on the decline?? an expert weighs in 🎬👀

Go beyond the headlines as we speak with an award winning art director about what's *really* happening in Hollywood right now.

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My last job-job in the industry of Hollywood was in 2020. I had been working at a network for about a year, working in development to build a digital slate (a la, roster of shows and ideas) for digital production. This was the culmination of years working in television development, as a digital producer, as a news producer, as a games producer, and so many more things that made television and entertainment “happen,” both for digital outlets and broadcast outlets. Covid morphed the job into a relentless, weekendless stretch of months producing television shows inside my house. I had experienced so many of the notable Hollywood horror stories, which all came to a personal climax when attending a Black Lives Matter march only to come across an image of police brutality outside of a building branded with the network I worked for. No one replied to my emails asking for them to address the issue.

So I left, “technically,” for a job in more digital oriented items, to write copy and do more digital strategy for brands within an agency setting. This was fun, participating in a ghost limb of the industry, considering Hollywood wants to be Silicon Valley and Silicon Valley wants to be Hollywood: to exist in the digital space is to continue on in entertainment with a slant-wise gait. I still exist within the system, but am a few steps removed — physically and mentally — from the noise, making it much more difficult for me to tap into my network and acquire specific types of work (whether I want them or not). I will always have a tether to the industry, given my interests and “career.” This is neither good nor bad: it just is.

But what’s been interesting since 2020 — as so much of the industry stopped down for Covid, which caused many aspects of the industry to pivot, which was further impacted by various strikes and union efforts — is how change has rippled throughout the foundation of the industry. This isn’t just news that I keep repeating (And there is a lot of news to repeat!) but it’s seeing the friend post on LinkedIn that they’ve left the business and the friend who shared that they’re going in-house at a corporation. There’s the friend who left the city to be closer to family. There’s the friend who decided to start their own small business entirely outside of “the biz”. There is the friend who is depressed, who has been struggling to make it all “work.” Ten years ago — and most certainly twenty, thirty, etc. years ago — it would be simple to laugh and say these people weren’t working hard enough, that they had “lost,” that their doing these things was a sign of defeat, that they didn’t make it: they were now a “has been.” Whether that is true or not, today these moves have an urgency, that someone had to do this in order to survive. The walls are tumbling down due to corporate cannibalization, degradation by tech, and myriad other maladies that play out as real people having real problems in their lives. Perhaps my seeing-the-trends early was why I left, perhaps I was lucky: I don’t know. Either way, I live to tell — and I really, really want you all to understand firsthand just how “big” of a deal this is, that an entire industry is bowing it’s head, already on bent knees, readying to be dealt the a blow that dissolves the greatest soft-power mechanism of our lifetime.

I’ve been thinking about this for the past few years and we’re arriving at the eve of a titanic sea change for entertainment. I cannot stop watching because it will mean so much: Hollywood — as a place, in Los Angeles — will be affected as the city will no longer be “the” place for dreams of fame; aspiring actors, writers, directors, and more may pivot entirely, putting their efforts into digital or more traditional means like theater and art, or something else entirely; we may see new industries arise in the shadows of what was once an integral part of production; new cities and new technologies may emerge because people had Hollywood skills and savvy but no longer had Hollywood jobs; we may see max exoduses from industries and cities to new industries and new cities. We are entering a new trend cycle due to the great physical, intellectual, and spiritual Hollywood diaspora. We’ve been on this trajectory since YouTube went online, since Netflix turned to streaming, since someone thought to use AI for creativity: this is one of the greatest dramas of our lifetime.

And I’m concerned! Both as a fan of entertainment and as someone who knows and loves so many people who are being affected. And, given my slight divorce, I wanted to speak to a close friend who has been in the industry much longer than I, who has worked in similar workhorse spaces that involves being in a shadow universe of accolades despite no one outside of the business “knowing your name.” As you’ll see, Addie — a pseudonym, so that they could share unfiltered thoughts — has worked in Hollywood for almost twenty years in the art department. Part set dresser, part props person, and part visual designer, their work — Like all art directors! — defines the look and feel of the show beyond special effects, wardrobe, and acting. Theirs is a world of craft, as the art department are always the people on set who are closest to being real, true artists.

Addie is very accomplished too: they’re multiple Emmy and Art Directors Guild nominated, they’ve worked on live shows for major award shows, they’ve worked on top network shows and new streaming shows, they’ve been on the top of departments and have been at the absolute bottom. They are a pro, someone whose skillset and expertise in the industry I trust more than my own. So I sent Addie a note, to get their take on “all this.” Still based in Los Angeles, they have a deep knowledge of what’s happening — and even have thoughts on that viral art department guild story that was going around TikTok. We chatted by email and the results are this very comprehensive interview about the state of the industry, the future of Los Angeles, and everything in between.

KRF: How would you describe the industry (and Los Angeles) right now? How does this differ from, say, ten years ago? From when you first started?

AD: In 2024, the current entertainment production industry in LA — and from what I've heard, in NY, Vancouver, ATL, even the UK and some of Europe — it's quiet and/or very dead, and it's been slow since around September 2022. There are some shows up and running, lots of non-union and lower budget work filming right now. It's like Schrodinger's Crew Work: I know some people working, but there are a lot of people not working or working really short gigs instead of longer running shows. The Great Quiet of 2022 now is unprecedented, and many industry veterans I've talked to have never seen such a slowdown, they have never seen such a small trickle of projects available to casts and crew members. Talent agents are cringing and unsure, whereas before, I think they could spot trends and upcoming projects. Studios seem to set up new projects abroad, but "over there" it's still not incredibly busy. Maybe New Mexico is busy according to Instagram commentators? It's become common to read alarming online stories of crew people leaving the industry, facing poverty, facing loss of health benefits/retirement because they haven't been able to book work long enough over the last year or more. Some are able to book work, but not many people. I have seen statistics say that only 20% of the union workforce is busy and working, the rest are experiencing irregular or no work ahead at all. There are so many anecdotal comments I see online - "I left [the entertainment industry] during the strikes, I never looked back" and some of those career pivoters claim they make more money and have better work-life balances, now that they're on "the outside" - cheers to them, man, lol

In 2014, the overall industry was bustling and it seemed like every production town/major city was busy with film/TV projects: Peak TV era. I traveled the most for work around this time, working in Hawaii, Boston, Utah, etc. It was a great time for people to move up from non-union work to union work, there were many projects going on at all times and you could earn your hours or find a show that could "flip" to union. Web series were still a thing back then, they were the indie-esque small budget projects that hired the new(newish)-to-the-biz contingent of filmmakers. Remember go90, later on Quibi? There was a lot of experimentation around streaming shows online. Lots of magazines pivoted to video content and that also created production jobs nearly everywhere in the US. Cable television wasn't fully dead so many projects ended up on channels/networks, not always releasing on streaming platforms: many of those didn't exist yet, Disney+ wasn't real yet. Netflix was on their rise as a legitimate studio, and it felt like they were throwing a lot of money around to create original shows and pivot away from licensing content from traditional Hollywood studios. 

I actually began my union career in 2007 and soon after experienced the Writers Strike of 2008, which did cause shows to shut down due to the strike. Many shows never came back or were harmed by the interruption: everyone likes to cite the downfall of the show HEROES in the post-WGA 2008 strike era, how it never recovered from the long break, in terms of writing or viewership. I remember getting pity from elder filmmakers, they opined that I started a career during a tumultuous time. But I didn't know anything different: I heard their memories of longer prep schedules, having more people per crew and relatively reasonable schedules in the pre-2008 era. Long days have always been expected: film production workers used to not even blink at 12 to 14 hour days. It's a recent thing to fight for a work-life balance. I only knew the fast-paced, aggressive production style that may have come about after 2008. But there were a lot of projects happening in LA in those years- many shows could take on novices like me. 

Witnessing this entertainment industry slowdown happen between 2022 and now is freaking us all out: it is anxiety inducing, it's a huge bummer, it is affecting all of us somehow. Lots of talented people, despite their experience, are just out of work at the moment. It's like musical chairs and we all didn't get chairs when the music stopped. It almost feels punitive and everyone has an opinion on who and what to blame. It has to be said again, despite the progress we can attain through strikes as laborers, the 2023 WGA and SAG/AFTRA strikes soon followed by the IATSE and Teamsters negotiations of 2024 seem related to the slowdown of production work - like studios don't want to produce a lot of shows anymore, they claim they can't afford producing many shows anymore, perhaps quietly blaming the increasing wage demands from the Hollywood workers as a reason for lack of funds. The glut of content creation of 2019 to 2022 is over: it was an era of plenty, it was the last vestiges of Peak TV and now we're starving. We're also trying to tackle the presence of AI at work: every corporation is toying with that in every field and department, from writing to creating videos. I think we're lucky that AI isn't that perfect yet and that there is a real push to create some labor laws around the usage of AI. AI is the Big Bad of 2024. 

KRF: There has been a bit of a buzz about the Art Directors Guild essentially ending their training program, telling people not to bother entering this field. Can you give a little context to the story? Is this true? Hyperbolic? "Why" is this happening?

AD: I am not officially part of the group at the ADG that handles the training program, so I can't actually confirm any details. I saw what you all saw: a pessimistic-toned letter relayed to IndieWire announcing the ending of the program this year due to 75% unemployment inside of the ADG, and little hope for the future — and then as a member, I received a follow up email that included this: "Unlike stated in that email, our belief is that our profession most assuredly is viable. We simply want to be honest about the work experience prospects for this coming year’s applicants.”

2024 and the upcoming immediate future isn't great for most of us because we can't predict anything anymore. I think everyone was sort of caught off guard with how quiet 2024 began and is now, so I understand the lack of confidence in mentoring upcoming, hopeful filmmakers. If union workers aren't working, how can we train newer artisans? It's probably not hyperbolic, this letter went out months after the end of the WGA/Actors strikes: we're experiencing a wide slowdown, enough time passed for these mentors to signal to upcomers that it "isn't a great time" to enter this business right now. Discouraging for sure, but I appreciate the light correction, the belief that our overall profession is viable in the future. The truth is, people always want to watch something — and every show needs a set or more. So there will be Art Directors maybe for forever…but maybe less of them.

KRF: Do you think this is a temporary moment or a symptom of the industry having a drastic shift? Is this a canary in the coal mine moment or more an extended pause?

AD: Right now, in the middle of it, I think the industry is having a drastic shift. In a way it is temporary because I believe abundance will come back again, there will be appetites for making new shows, maybe in new formats that's unknown or not yet widely used today. Maybe we stop making epic HBO TV series but that type of project turns into epic VR headset series/immersive narrative experiences (Digital dinner theater!) It must be similar to the shift in film history, when silent movies turned into sound movies, and many people got left behind because their silent film methods became obsolete.  I'm guessing? I don't know. I studied film history and I can't remember another time wherein the available work evaporated rather suddenly: there was always film production going on, the technologies and formats just kept changing. The 15 million dollar indie movie of the 1990s turned into the 15 million dollar Peak TV series of the 2000s to 2010s. But, now, TV shows and film projects are disappearing, and there's nothing there to replace the voids yet.  

KRF: If, say, such shifts are sustained where departments like art direction, lighting, camera, and other "crew" jobs are hit (which will be echoed by actors, writers, and directors), what does this mean for the industry? What will this mean for the city itself and the professions involved?

AD: I think LA has already been hit, since 2023 at least, and I mentioned this before but the available projects began to decrease sometime around late 2022, and I, like other filmmakers, guessed it was in anticipation of the WGA 2023 negotiations and strike. Practically speaking, no studio would want to greenlight an expensive production, only to have it shut down mid-way for months if/when a strike occurs — and the strikes did occur. Since the strikes of last summer, lots of film people are unemployed or underemployed. We've seen prop houses close up completely or move away to more affordable buildings/areas. I do think there's a correlation between the Hollywood slowdown and the restaurant closures of 2023: if people aren't working, they aren't spending that much. No shows in the works equals no group lunch orders everyday, no business meeting meals, no catering. Los Angeles is THE showbiz town so there must be a noticeable depression in the last year and more. A lot of filmmakers have left LA and entertainment work completely: again, people lost homes, lost private school tuitions, sold their houses and vehicles and moved away. Some are staying, hanging in there by doing work in other fields, possibly mostly entry level positions though. Lots of people have pivoted to messengering or food delivery, rideshare driving, retail, restaurant work — some have gone back to school to gain new skills for other fields. It's a bit of an evisceration of the LA economy and culture, it feels less "busy" out in the world.

KRF: What does this mean for entertainment products, a la: how will this affect people's televisions at home? This sounds silly but...why should people at home care? And how can they help?

AD: People might notice that there's less stuff to watch, maybe they'll see more advertisements because ads are what pays for these productions. It's the price for "free TV" but I know it doesn't feel good to the consumer, someone who is probably already paying a monthly subscription to have any access to TV/film at all. I think people at home could care about an ailing industry — Entertainment was, is? The biggest export of the USA? — and many other fields are related to entertainment, so this slowdown can possibly reverberate through the total economy at some point. I want entertainment to be a sustainable business like it was before, so in a way, I need and want people to keep watching TV and to go to the movies (PUT YOUR PHONE AWAY) and have good theater etiquette, and remember that cinema can be a great bonding experience and deserves full attention when playing. Go to the movies! Let's pivot to movies. Don't cuss out the ads: sorry! The ads pay for the fun stuff. Apparently we need to recoup some recent losses and the ads might help. The ticket sales definitely will help.

Maybe production work comes back but commercials will definitely come back as a significant hiring force/situation: that may be something people notice. I do think advertisements will once again fund the studios and thereby fund the shows/films.

KRF: What does this mean for the world and other industries? What's happening to Hollywood isn't happening in a silo, given private equity messing with restaurants, the art market battling over prices, and the tech industry gutting itself: these are all related, in obvious and non-obvious ways. It's AI and it's not. It's billionaires and not.

AD: I'm truly not sure how to answer this question without going on about broad strokes and some sort of philosophy.

Logistically, even more of “the business” is happening outside of California, productions that are both union and non-union. Maybe California needs better tax incentives. Maybe it's just cheaper to hire department heads and above-the-line out of LA or NY, and then hire local crew out of that place, a la fly out a production designer who is based in LA to Tulsa and hire the rest of the Art Department out of Tulsa. Migrating towards the work has happened before: in the mid-2000s, I remember crew people moving to and from Chicago or Shreveport/New Orleans. It was like a literal circus tribe that migrated with the film/TV productions that moved towards the next tax break.

Spiritually…America, in general, is surprising us all: Americans have a shocking growing tolerance to the worst shit ever. We know more about each other, heinous things seem to happen so fast that it's hard to group together and influence leaders/companies to change their actions. Like we have a proven criminal ex-president who just...walks freely still. Somehow that's OK. We all strike, we protest, we write letters, and sometimes it feels like it goes into a void, or barely moves progress forward. We have corporations merging at dizzying rates, reducing the number of businesses and also reducing so-called free market competition, companies that are slashing their staffs for short-term financial gains and savings, proud of money NOT spent but seemingly forgetting that if they don't pay people, there is no economy.

When people are fairly paid for their work, they spend their money in the market, they buy things and experiences and create culture. It seems like these recent business decisions are based on short term goals, squeezing a business for money and not protecting the positive influences and services those businesses once provided. It's a slow boil to a new kind of slavery: what is the corporate owners' ideal? To lock in a minimally staffed workforce that is overworked, so those workers spend their little bits of money and little free time on purchasing, instead of having lives and experiences outside of the consumerist context? GURL. I'm rambling like I know things: I don't know anything. Maybe we printed too much money and none of it matters. 

KRF: What's your advice for people in similar situations, in Hollywood and beyond? Hollywood has always been about resilience and getting creative. How are you doing that?

AD: My advice is: if you have to step away and do something else to survive, that is your prerogative

Maybe you'll get a call for a film job later this year, and it pulls you back into the chaos again, maybe it won't pull you back, because you experience better mental health in a different industry. There is absolutely no shame in needing to pivot for survival and overall life thriving. This business is starving its participants at the moment, but the film work may slowly come back: if you can stay in LA or a production city and "wait it out," by all means hang in there. You might have to get a "day job" and that's absolutely the smart thing to do. If you want, group together some money and some filmmaker friends and make short films and videos anyway. Make the content alone too, if you want to make something. Remember to make art that isn't tied with your work or sustenance. Feel your feelings, get therapy. Explore your creativity with other artforms: I turned to drawing and painting more.

I'm trying to learn new skills and brush up on what I do know, through formal classes or on my own, YouTube tutorial-ing my way around softwares. Keep in touch with friends from work — we've always gotten work because we know each other as filmmakers — so I think you have to keep those connections alive through socializing and friendliness. Some of us are finding purpose by diving into working with or for our local unions, so we can maintain an active voice and influence on the contract negotiations happening between IATSE/Teamsters and the AMPTP. I think it's good to remember that as a filmmaker, we're capable of a lot of tasks, and this downturn could also mean more free time to explore work and life beyond Hollywood. Love yourself first! The work will come, or a new path will appear. It'll work out…I think?

Read it and try-not-to-weep. Hug a movie and show that you love and get off your phone.

Are you concerned about the Hollywood shift? What do you think is going to happen? Let’s hear in the comments, please!!

And if you have an opportunity for Addie, reply to this email and I can potentially connect you both.

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